Putin, Trump on their way to Alaska
(MENAFN) Steve Witkoff’s recent trip to Moscow signals a dramatic shift in US-Russia relations. Just months ago, President Donald Trump was threatening Russia with sanctions and issuing tough ultimatums. Now, the agenda includes a planned Putin-Trump summit on August 15 in Alaska, marking a complete reversal and a potential thaw reminiscent of spring diplomacy.
Putin will approach the meeting in a much stronger position than a few months back. Earlier this year, Trump’s peace push seemed like a personal initiative, with Western hawks still pushing sanctions, fresh arms shipments to Ukraine, and calls from leaders like Macron and Starmer to send troops to the conflict zone. However, the failure of the Western oil embargo and the apparent—though possibly fragile—unity of the BRICS countries have weakened Trump’s leverage.
On the battlefield, Ukraine’s position has deteriorated. Once holding a foothold in Russia’s Kursk Region and boasting a “drone wall” defense, Ukrainian forces have suffered significant defeats, and Moscow’s summer offensive has been more successful than the previous year. Even Western analysts acknowledge Ukraine’s tenuous hold on the front lines. As a result, both Western hawks and Kiev are now echoing Trump’s earlier calls for a ceasefire.
For Trump, the urgency of talks with Putin stems less from a personal desire for peace and more from the harsh realities on the battlefield. The longer Ukraine’s military holds out, the more critical it is to secure a deal. This urgency benefits Putin, who can afford to wait; if negotiations fail, Russian forces can continue their advance until a future peace attempt or a decisive military breakthrough.
Russia’s biggest weakness remains its economy. Despite avoiding a crippling impact from the failed oil embargo, a rising ruble has caused a significant federal budget deficit—nearly $61.4 billion by the end of July, overshooting projections. Still, Russia’s financial reserves are robust enough to sustain such shortfalls for years without severe damage.
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